THE DIMENSIONS OF RISK
Please see our Risk Options section and Better Outcomes re outcome formulation
The basic definition of risk is provided graphically by the figure below. What this means is that "Risk" is about the future (which means that it is a subjective concept that is pointing toward an outcome that is in the future. The outcome hasn't happened yet and is about what philosophers call a "Possible World". This outcome is viewed (valued) either negatively or positively. The "Risk" also carries a probability which ranges between 0 and 1. If the probability = 0, this means there is NO risk. If the probability = 1, this means there is NO risk. Something which is certain not to occur cannot be a risk, something which is certain to occur cannot be a risk. Notice the need for baseline outcomes (what is the case right now and why this is so) as well as the specification of outcome pathways of non-intervention and intervention.
The strange case of "Positive Risk"
People engaged in risk taking often speak of taking a positive risk. By this they mean they are taking a chance of things working out as they hope. There is, in their view, a distinct chance of it all going pear shaped and in allowing something to proceed they view themselves as "taking a positive risk". All this is fine and I have no argument with it. But it is not what I mean by "positive risk".
Notice the value component in the diagram above. It can be positive (strength) OR negative (weakness). What this means is that the assessment of an event or action in relation to an outcome is viewed positively or negatively. Thus, if a parent is shouting at or demeaning a child we would view this action as negative in terms of its outcome effect being emotional harm. If this behaviour carried on regularly into the future we would say that there was a risk of significant emotional harm (in the longer run). This negative view on risk is how we usually think of it.
But that is only half the story. It is never all negatives in family care assessments. What would you say of a parent who plays with the child, talks to the child, shows the child things, generally stimulates the child and so on? These things are all positive. Why do you think a (good) parent does these things? If the parental behaviour carried on in this way there would be a likelihood that cognitive development would prove well within the normal range. The parent perceives the probability and value of the outcome which results from doing these things. This is an example of positive strength and also an example of positive risk in the other (and much more important) sense of the term. But it seems very strange to talk this way because we are so used (conditioned) to thinking of the word risk as meaning only negativity. It is true that we would look askance at a parent who told us that she was playing with her baby because she wants there to be "a risk of it enjoying normal cognitive development". But strange way of talking or not, this is exactly what she is doing.
At the end of the day, in social care we are interested in the negatives because the law says that we have to do something about stopping negatives occurring if they amount to serious impairment or significant harm. It is the negatives which people suffer or are likely to suffer which give us our roles. But in terms of our assessments, any risk assessment which specifies only negatives is only half an assessment. It is vital to assess and record the positive risks (value and probability) where they exist or may exist of actions and future actions as these are strengths rather than weaknesses. It takes just a little effort of thinking "out of the box" (a better word is trap) to get your head around this.
In fact, there are more than six dimensions to Risk. We also want to know the basics shown in the figure below:
The six dimensions of Risk which we must apply to the consideration of risk in social care work are as follows:
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Risk Identification |
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Risk Estimation |
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Risk Analysis |
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Risk Assessment |
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Risk Evaluation |
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Risk Management |
The application of the Dimensions must produce the minimum as set out in the figure below:
The next two buttons extend the above discussion into two arenas where much confusion reigns in social care work: Probability and Judgement.
The detailed application of these dimensions and aspects of risk are taught in the Osiris Analysis and Assessment course. Risk Management is available as an additional one day supplement to the Error Theory and Risk Management courses.